Greece, Fiscal Cliff Weigh on U.S. Stock Futures
November 26, 2012, 6:09 a.m. ET
U.S. stock-market futures headed lower on Monday,
with investors focusing on continued negotiations over the so-called
fiscal cliff and discussions among euro-area finance ministers over the
next tranche of Greek aid.
No major economic data are on the agenda.
About three hours before the start of trading, futures for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 54 points, or 0.4%, to 12907, while those
for the Standard & Poor's 500 index eased 6.7 points, or 0.5%, to
1398.60. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index fell 10 points, or 0.4%, to
2624.25. Changes in futures don't always accurately predict early market
moves after the opening bell.
"We could see U.S. markets start positively, but they're a bit
nervous about Greece," said Henrik Drusebjerg, senior strategist at Nordea Bank
NDA.SK -0.33%
. He said prospects for a so-called Santa Claus rally lie in the hands of global politicians.
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% on Friday, its first close above
13000 since Election Day on Nov. 6. The index netted a 3.4% weekly
gain, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.6%.
Later on Monday, European finance ministers will
meet to try and OK the latest aid payment to Greece, after failing to
agree last week with the International Monetary Fund over those
conditions.
"It's far too early to say that's irrelevant," said Mr. Drusebjerg.
"Most investors are hoping for a deal today that will kick the can more
than three months down the road."
"Without agreement on how to reduce the debt, euro-zone ministers and
the IMF do not want to resume payments of loan tranches to Athens, even
though Greece has met all the conditions, because they have no
guarantee on whether the need for emergency financing will ever end,"
added Max Cohen, financial sales trader at SpreadEx, in emailed
comments.
U.S. politics make up the other focus for investors. Lawmakers will
return to Washington, for a three-week session after the long
Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Some Republican lawmakers reportedly said
over the weekend that they are ready to break a long-standing promise
not to raise taxes.
And leading Democratic Sen. Richard Durbin, speaking on ABC's "This
Week" program on Sunday, also was guardedly optimistic about a deal.
"It's a step towards a solution," said Mr. Drusebjerg. "There's now
also movement from the Democrats. It's some part of a sign they're
willing to work together."
He said that markets got a lift last week on signs that consumers were actively spending on Black Friday.
"That's given some hope that Christmas shopping this year will be a
lot better than expected, and that could be a pickup for the U.S.
economy," he said. But he said failure on the part of U.S. politicians
over the fiscal cliff or European politicians regarding Greece could
stymie economic growth.
While no major economic data are on the calendar for Monday,
retailers could be in focus again after reports that a record number of
consumers were out in force over the holiday shopping weekend.
The Monday after Thanksgiving—known as Cyber Monday—is also a key day
of shopping for the e-commerce world, with one analysis suggesting
sales could hit $1.5 billion.
In other markets, European stocks weakened ahead of the Greece talks,
and after weekend elections in Spain, which were won by Catalonian
separatists. Oil and gold prices also fell.
Risk aversion drew investors to the dollar, though.