Greece, Fiscal Cliff Weigh on U.S. Stock Futures
By BARBARA KOLLMEYER
U.S. stock-market futures headed lower on Monday, with investors focusing on continued negotiations over the so-called fiscal cliff and discussions among euro-area finance ministers over the next tranche of Greek aid.No major economic data are on the agenda.
About three hours before the start of trading, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 54 points, or 0.4%, to 12907, while those for the Standard & Poor's 500 index eased 6.7 points, or 0.5%, to 1398.60. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index fell 10 points, or 0.4%, to 2624.25. Changes in futures don't always accurately predict early market moves after the opening bell.
"We could see U.S. markets start positively, but they're a bit nervous about Greece," said Henrik Drusebjerg, senior strategist at Nordea Bank NDA.SK -0.33% . He said prospects for a so-called Santa Claus rally lie in the hands of global politicians.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% on Friday, its first close above 13000 since Election Day on Nov. 6. The index netted a 3.4% weekly gain, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.6%.
Later on Monday, European finance ministers will meet to try and OK the latest aid payment to Greece, after failing to agree last week with the International Monetary Fund over those conditions.
"It's far too early to say that's irrelevant," said Mr. Drusebjerg. "Most investors are hoping for a deal today that will kick the can more than three months down the road."
"Without agreement on how to reduce the debt, euro-zone ministers and the IMF do not want to resume payments of loan tranches to Athens, even though Greece has met all the conditions, because they have no guarantee on whether the need for emergency financing will ever end," added Max Cohen, financial sales trader at SpreadEx, in emailed comments.
U.S. politics make up the other focus for investors. Lawmakers will return to Washington, for a three-week session after the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Some Republican lawmakers reportedly said over the weekend that they are ready to break a long-standing promise not to raise taxes.
And leading Democratic Sen. Richard Durbin, speaking on ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday, also was guardedly optimistic about a deal.
"It's a step towards a solution," said Mr. Drusebjerg. "There's now also movement from the Democrats. It's some part of a sign they're willing to work together."
He said that markets got a lift last week on signs that consumers were actively spending on Black Friday.
"That's given some hope that Christmas shopping this year will be a lot better than expected, and that could be a pickup for the U.S. economy," he said. But he said failure on the part of U.S. politicians over the fiscal cliff or European politicians regarding Greece could stymie economic growth.
While no major economic data are on the calendar for Monday, retailers could be in focus again after reports that a record number of consumers were out in force over the holiday shopping weekend.
The Monday after Thanksgiving—known as Cyber Monday—is also a key day of shopping for the e-commerce world, with one analysis suggesting sales could hit $1.5 billion.
In other markets, European stocks weakened ahead of the Greece talks, and after weekend elections in Spain, which were won by Catalonian separatists. Oil and gold prices also fell.
Risk aversion drew investors to the dollar, though.
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