Japan's post-disaster age of small-scale politics
(Mainichi Japan) March 12 2012
"Nihon Kindaishi" ("A Modern History of Japan"), a newly-published book by Junji Banno, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, raises doubts about the prevailing optimism toward disaster recovery and the surge toward political renewal in Japan. The book is filled with hints that could help the nation get to the bottom of many outstanding issues.
Banno, 74, a leading expert in the history of constitutional politics, uses the phrase, "small scale," to describe Japan's current political situation.
The two major parties -- the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and the largest opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- have lost their unity and are plagued by internal strife over whether the 5 percent consumption tax should be raised and whether they should form a grand coalition. In the end, they can make no important decisions.
This is also the case in bureaucratic circles, the business world, and the media. Their leaders have become small-scale, and critics point out that the quality of elites has declined considerably. As all this goes on, there has been a rapid increase in public support for the Osaka Restoration Association, a regional political party that is calling for a drastic overhaul of Japan's political and social systems.
Banno points out that the current situation is similar to that of Japan around 1935, before the Sino-Japanese war turned into a quagmire. Banno's quote of an entry in a diary kept by then Army Gen. Kazushige Ugaki, who later served as foreign minister, is quite effective in describing the situation.
Ugaki looked back on the Meiji and Taisho eras when Japan managed to make policy decisions even though Japan's politics had undergone major changes over a short period of time -- from the Meiji government dominated by domain cliques to bureaucrat-led politics, then to party politics in the Taisho Era.
"In the current era, small-scale disputes have occurred one after another -- between political parties, military forces, bureaucrats, left-leaning forces and right-leaning forces, followed by internal strife within the Seiyukai party, a feud over whether Seiyukai and the Minseito party should form an alliance, and factional strife within the military. What does it imply?" Ugaki wrote.
Seiyukai and Minseito were major political parties in Japan at the time. An alliance between the two parties would result in a grand coalition. In the end, the two parties failed to agree to form a grand coalition, and Minseito emerged as the largest bloc in the Diet following the February 1936 general election. Shortly after that, younger military officers staged a coup attempt, known as the 2.26 (Feb. 26) incident. The attempt was suppressed, but it led to superficial cooperation between smaller-scale political forces, which brought Japan into the war against the United States. As history shows, Japan suffered a defeat.
In response to Ugaki's question on what the smaller-scale political disputes implied, Banno says, "Domestic leaders were torn asunder and became unable to control Japan's foreign relations. The age of crisis developed into an age of collapse."
While Banno was authoring his book, the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami occurred. It reminded him of the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, an armed conflict between Japanese and Chinese forces on July 7, 1937, which developed into an all-out war between the two countries. In other words, he saw the March 11 disasters as the beginning of collapse rather than restoration.
As we enter the spring of 2012, smaller-scale forces in the political world are struggling with each other without forming coalitions and without a general election in sight. The points of discussions on how Japan would reconstruct disaster-stricken regions, whether Japan should scale down its reliance on nuclear power generation and how it should reform its electric power generation and supply system are being derailed.
The March 11, 2011 disasters produced a national crisis. However, Banno warns that suggestions drastic reform will come after this national crisis are merely optimistic ideas not based on analysis of history.
Banno goes on to say that people should not chase the pipe dream that major reform like that of the Meiji Restoration or post-war democratic reform will occur when the groundwork has not been laid.
He concludes that the current situation, in which the public cannot sympathize with the starting point or goals of reform, and political forces continue to "liquefy," is identical to the situation around 1935 rather than the years right after the war.
Banno describes the process from the crisis in the early Showa Era to the beginning of the collapse in detail, and then ends his book by saying, "I have no ability to describe the age of collapse."
The consequences of the collapse were Japan's defeat in the war and burned-out ruins. No one can predict where the current crisis will lead Japan. However, one cannot help but wonder what should be destroyed and where Japan should go. No solution is likely to be found unless the public has some serious experiences that allow them to share answers to these questions.
(By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
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