LDP regains footing in election but prospects of regaining power unclear
Since the LDP is certain to achieve its goal of preventing the two-party ruling coalition from securing a majority in the upper chamber of the Diet, LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki said he will stay on as party leader following the July 11 poll.
LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki expresses joy in the party headquarters at its outstanding performance in the July 11 House of Councillors race. (Mainichi)
However, the LDP's outstanding performance was aided largely by voters' criticism of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's inconsistent remarks on a consumption tax hike. A failure by the party to show clear prospects for winning the unified local elections next year and the next House of Representatives election is likely to spark calls for the party leadership to step down.
"I feel we've made outstanding performances in constituencies, and I'm sure we can achieve our goal (of blocking the ruling coalition from retaining a majority)," LDP Secretary-General Tadamori Oshima said at the party headquarters as he was examining the results of vote counting.
Since the approval rating for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) surged again after Kan replaced Yukio Hatoyama as party leader and prime minister, younger LDP legislators had discussed the possibility of launching a campaign to force Tanigaki to resign after the upper house race.
On July 6, LDP legislators who have no factional affiliation, including Policy Research Council Vice Chairman Yasutoshi Nishimura, gathered at a meeting room in the party headquarters to analyze the party's chance of winning the election.
One of them, former Vice Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Takuya Hirai, urged the party leadership to raise its goal in the upper house race. "The question is whether we'll win the largest number of contested seats," he was quoted as saying.
Another pointed out that it is difficult for the LDP to work out a strategy for winning the unified local elections under the leadership of President Tanigaki and Secretary-General Oshima.
However, calls for replacing the leadership are waning now. This is partly because the party has lost the public's support in the past as a result of frequent changes in its leadership. The party's leader has changed every year since 2006, when former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office. Tanigaki is now optimistic about staying in his post at least until his term expires in September 2012.
In a TBS television program on July 11, Tanigaki urged Kan to dissolve the lower house at an early date for a snap general election.
However, since the LDP has been preoccupied with its campaign for the July 11 election, it has not selected candidates in about one-third of the 300 single-seat constituencies of the lower house. Furthermore, a recent Mainichi survey shows the approval rating for the LDP remains low, at less than 20 percent.
Under such circumstances, it remains uncertain whether the LDP can take advantage of its outstanding showing in the upper house election to regain control of the government.
Another question is how long the LDP can endure as an opposition party. After slipping from power in 1993, it regained control of the government only a year later by teaming up with the Social Democratic Party and the now defunct New Party Sakigake. However, the situation is completely different now, as the LDP has only 116 seats in the 480-seat lower house.
Sources close to the LDP say the party may move to form an alliance with some influential coalition leaders, such as former DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa and People's New Party leader Shizuka Kamei.
Even though Tanigaki has ruled out the possibility of forming a grand coalition with the DPJ, a split may develop within the LDP depending on the party leadership's handling of the situation. (By Takuji Nakata, Political News Department)
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