Greece's Risky Rhetoric
WALL STREET JOURNAL * Heard on the StreetBY RICHARD BARLEY, March 19,2010
Message to George Papandreou: Silence is golden. Thursday, the Greek prime minister called on European leaders to agree next week to a package of standby loans to buy his country breathing space on reform.
But every time Mr. Papandreou opens his mouth to complain about the lack of European Union support for his country, or hints that he might go to the International Monetary Fund for aid instead, he actually makes the job of financing his country's deficit more difficult.
( This is not the full and complete Article, it will be posted when I will secure it )
20-3-2010 - *** here is the full article
The Full Article By RICHARD BARLEY
Message to George Papandreou: Silence is golden. The Greek prime minister Thursday called on European leaders to agree next week on a package of standby loans to buy Greece breathing space on reform. But every time Mr. Papandreou complains of a lack of support for the nation or hints he will tap the International Monetary Fund, he makes financing Greece's deficit tougher.
Mr. Papandreou's fear: that high borrowing costs will dilute the impact of budget measures already announced. But by discussing the need for support, he risks raising investors' concerns that Greece has a problem with market access, when it doesn't. Greece has sold €13 billion ($17.9 billion) in bonds this year, with the latest sale just two weeks ago.
Sure, Greece is paying a high price to borrow. This year's bond issues yielded over 6%. But Greek borrowing costs are falling. Its 10-year bonds now yield 2.8 percentage points more than German debt, well below the peak of four percentage points in January. That spread should continue to tighten as the country rebuilds fiscal credibility.
There is also a limit to how far yields can fall. Ireland, with a similar budgetary challenge and a struggling banking system but greater market credibility and higher credit ratings, would pay about 1.3 percentage points over German bonds to borrow 10-year money. And the market knows Greece faces a €16 billion bond refinancing hump in April and May. Greek spreads might tighten at best to 1.8-2.0 percentage points over bunds medium term.
Mr. Papandreou's misguided communications are an obstacle to costs falling to even these levels. If he is serious about reducing borrowing costs, he needs to recognize there are no shortcuts—and no alternative to the tough changes that Greece has ducked for so long.
—Richard Barley Printed in The Wall Street Journal
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