Unemployment in Euro Zone...[ 3033 ]

Unemployment Rises to a New High in Euro Zone

By MELISSA EDDY and DAVID JOLLY// Published: January 8, 2013/ NYT

BERLIN — Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a new high in November, according to data released Tuesday that also showed that the troubles in the 17-nation currency bloc were straining its strongest member, Germany.

Tracking Europe's Debt Crisis

The euro zone jobless rate rose to 11.8 percent in November from 11.7 percent in October, according to Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union. Eurostat estimated that 18.8 million people in the euro zone were unemployed in November, two million more than a year earlier.

Germany has provided momentum to the European economy over the past three years, as strong exports protected the country from the crisis. 

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But on Tuesday, the Federal Statistics Office in Berlin said that German exports declined 3.4 percent while imports slid 3.7 percent in November from a month earlier. The weakness narrowed Germany’s trade surplus to €14.6 billion, or $19 billion.

German factory orders also fell in November amid weak demand from outside the euro area, the Economy Ministry said Tuesday. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, slid 1.8 percent from October, when they jumped 3.8 percent. 

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“The November numbers are not a one-off but an extension of the current trend of weakening exports,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, wrote in a research note Tuesday. He pointed out that German exports had fallen about 4 percent since May.

“Today’s data confirmed our view that exports should have turned from driver of growth into drag on growth,” he wrote.

A separate report from Eurostat showed that retail sales fell 2.6 percent in November from a year earlier, though they gained 0.1 percent from October. 

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The gloomy reports come as the Governing Council of the European Central Bank prepares to hold a policy meeting Thursday, followed by an interest-rate announcement. Despite a sharp decline in bank lending reported last week, which had some analysts suggesting that the central bank might try new steps to stimulate the economy, economists surveyed by Reuters said they expected the E.C.B. to leave policy unchanged in January as it waited for a clearer picture of economic conditions.

Like their counterparts in the United States, Japan and Britain, the monetary authorities in the euro zone have already opened the spigots, allowing banks to borrow essentially as much as they want at the benchmark rate. Mario Draghi, president of the E.C.B., has pledged to do whatever is necessary to ensure the stability of the euro, including, if needed, buying the sovereign bonds of Spain and Italy to hold their borrowing costs to sustainable levels.

The president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, said Monday in Lisbon that “the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome. ”

“In 2013 the question won’t be if the euro will, or will not, implode,” he said.

The central bank’s actions have succeeded in calming markets and driving down government bond yields for embattled countries. The European Commission reported Tuesday that an index of economic sentiment in the euro zone had improved by 1.3 points in December, to 87. “Economic sentiment in the euro area improved among consumers and across all sectors, except retail trade,” the commission reported. 

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Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London, said the data Tuesday were consistent with expectations that the euro zone economy would remain in recession through the winter, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to as high as 12.4 percent.

“We’re still far below the level of growth that would stabilize the labor market,” he said.

But he added that the commission’s report on economic sentiments, as well as recent surveys of purchasing managers, suggested that the downturn in the manufacturing sector had “bottomed out,” making possible a return to growth later in the year. 

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“External demand seems to be holding up better than we had thought,” Mr. Moëc said. “Now we are to a large extent dependent on what happens in the United States,” he added, referring to the negotiations on spending.

Europe also got a vote of confidence from Tokyo on Tuesday, as Finance Minister Taro Aso said Japan would buy bonds of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone bailout fund, as well as sovereign debt in the currency zone.

“The financial stability of Europe will help the stability of foreign exchange rates, including the yen,” Mr. Aso was quoted by the Nikkei newspaper as saying. 

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Attacking joblessness may require governments to ease back on austerity measures that many economists, including some at the International Monetary Fund, say might have gone too far. In France, President François Hollande has vowed to turn around the flagging labor market, where, according to Eurostat, unemployment was 10.5 percent in November.

Eurostat said Spain, which is suffering from the collapse of a real estate bubble and the impact of a raft of tough austerity measures, had the highest unemployment rate in the bloc, at 26.6 percent. Greece, where the sovereign debt crisis began, was next at 26 percent, according to data released in September. The lowest rates were in Austria, at 4.5 percent; Luxembourg, at 5.1 percent; and Germany, at 5.4 percent. 

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Worryingly, youth unemployment in the euro zone continued to grow, with 5.8 million people under age 25 classified as jobless in November, up 420,000 from a year earlier. 

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GREECE

The Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, who was in Berlin for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday, singled out youth unemployment as one of the biggest challenges Greece faces in reviving its economy. But he said at a news conference before meeting the chancellor that, over all, he was positive. 

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“I see the glass half-full,” Mr. Samaras said before taking part in an economic conference in Berlin. “We’re delivering and Europe’s helping.” 

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It was the Greek prime minister’s second trip to Berlin since taking office. The mood appeared lighter than during his visit in August, which came on the heels of calls from within Ms. Merkel’s government for Greece to leave the common currency.

Greece is focusing its efforts on winning back the trust of Europeans, as well as the markets, Mr. Samaras said. But he emphasized that high unemployment, especially among young people, weighed heavily on Greeks. 

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“I would like to make it clear up front that our country is making enormous efforts and many are paying a high price, in order to get things back on track,” Mr. Samaras said.

Ms. Merkel said that Greece’s European partners must continue to support the country. 

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She was perhaps wary of the fragility of Mr. Samaras’s three-party coalition government, which has been pushing through deeply unpopular reforms.

“We also must do everything to guarantee economic growth, security and jobs,” Ms. Merkel said.

David Jolly reported from Paris. James Kanter contributed reporting from Brussels and Hiroko Tabuchi from Tokyo.