Oil near $81 on US economy, demand optimism
PABLO GORONDI, Associated Press Writer
Published: 12:13 a.m., Monday, January 4, 2010
Oil prices climbed to near $81 a barrel Monday on optimism that a gradual U.S. economic recovery in 2010 will boost demand for crude.
Cold weather in the eastern United States and gains by other currencies against the dollar also helped support prices.
By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for February delivery was up $1.55 to $80.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 8 cents to settle at $79.36 on Thursday. Trading was closed Friday for the New Year holiday.
Oil has flirted with the $80 level the last two trading days after jumping from $69 a barrel last month on signs the U.S. economy may be improving. The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November from 10.2 percent in October, and the government is scheduled to announced December's results later this week.
"Most people expect the economy to get better this year, and demand should follow," said Victor Shum, an analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But traders so far lack the conviction to trade oil above $80 for long simply because of there haven't been clear indications of growing demand yet."
Other analysts also underlined that there was still a way to go before thirst for oil returned to earlier levels.
"The bottom line is that demand is improving, but is still a far cry from what it once was," said a report from U.S. consultancy Cameron Hanover.
Uncertainties about demand, high stockpiles of crude and refined products and trading positions defined by the technical analysis of prices were also seen affecting the market.
"We do not think that the fundamental picture and the price structure will allow for the current crude oil prices to be sustained in 2010," said Olivier Jakob of Switzerland's Petromatrix.
Analysts were divided about the impact of a dispute between Russia and Belarus, which is a transit country for oil shipments to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline.
Officials in Belarus said Monday that supplies of Russian oil to Belarus and transit shipments to Europe were continuing despite a dispute over prices.
"Russian crude flows via the northern leg of the Druzhba line are vital, especially for German and Polish refiners, and any uncertainties around feedstock supplies are supporting concerns around the future of the already strongly pressured refiners," said JBC Energy in Vienna.
Petromatrix's Jakob, however, was reminded of a similar dispute between Russia and Belarus in 2007, which was quickly resolved and led to a sharp fall of 7 percent in oil prices.
A weaker dollar also supported prices, making oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Colder weather has also lifted crude prices recently by boosting demand for heating oil and natural gas.
In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 4.98 cents to $2.1654 a gallon and gasoline gained 3.74 cents to $2.0903 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 26.4 cents to $5.836 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude for February delivery rose $1.57 to $79.50 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
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Associated Press writers Alex Kennedy in Singapore and Yuras Karmanau in Minsk, Belarus, contributed to this report.
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